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Everything is temporary, but sometimes temporality lasts a little longer. And if ‘everything’ means less pleasant things, such as stalled production and inflation, it starts to gnaw. “No, sorry, we did not see it coming,” Fed Chairman Powell said last week, “it was not in our models.” We have seen many forms of temporary scarcity … Read more

This catch phrase is central in a global debate, but even relevant in the formation of a new government in our own country. Will this lead to a political and financial turnaround that so many have written about in recent years? This call to curb the market, which was leading, among other things, to an … Read more

We have now reached the final rounds of the interest rate competition. The heat is on, it gets exciting, because who will be the first to admit that the inflationary pressure is getting too much for him or her? Who blinks first? In the group matches there were already countries that dropped out and loved … Read more

One of the hardest things to do is to pretend weather conditions are excellent when you have just been caught in a downpour. Not unlike the recently released US inflation rate, the highest in 40 years, that even the most pessimistic economist had not even remotely predicted: 4.2%. It was a pity that the inflation … Read more

It seems simple: the government orders money, the central bank supplies it, keeps the interest at around 0% and you get it transferred. Then a few more mouse clicks and your order is on its way to the store. And they click your order through to the factory. Will that work? Probably if we only … Read more

The world is getting back on track, especially in the US, where nearly 1 million jobs were added in the past month and the services sector also appears to be recovering. Both the vaccination and the emergency plan got off to a flying start. But perhaps another few thousand billion dollars in stimulus will be … Read more

Inflation and interest rates If there is no inflation, interest rates are low and stocks are likely to be well priced. But if inflation were to increase and thus cause interest rates to rise, it will be a different story for stocks. That is the core of the current discussion in financial markets. But what … Read more

Bubbles Many of us will remember the tech-bubble in the late 90s when the talk of the day was about shares and options of mostly new, often unknown companies, which hardly made a profit, if at all. That was an indication of all the things that went wrong afterwards. These days, mature central bankers and … Read more

Hope and reality Naturally, I’d like to start this newsletter by wishing you a relaxed and healthy New Year. Without virus worries but with the holiday that you have had to postpone a few times and with a bite in a restaurant or a little drink on a terrace every now and again. And without … Read more