Is Santa Claus only coming to the US?
It was quite a month, as Santa Claus came early this year: especially the US stock market shot up…
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Election fever?
Do elections really matter for financial markets, for the slightly longer term? This remains to be seen. Of course…
Golden Week
September was a volatile stock market month that started badly, but gradually became more upbeat. The bouncer was China,…
A short-lived rollercoaster?
August looked like a short-lived rollercoaster for financial markets, with equities first sharply down and then sharply up again.…
Summer sales?
Recession fear? While this should have been a July newsletter, that whole (for us) relatively friendly month of July…
The world is turning…. stock markets too?
June was an unusual month. Both in Europe and in the US, the political centre seemed to be losing…
Mood swings
Introduction There are several important elections this year. Both investors and politicians are trying to respond to changing trends…
Less in the cloud, more in the cloud
Things have become more unsettled in financial markets. Stock markets showed their sunny side in the first months of…
Is good advice as expensive as the stock market?
Stock market sentiment remained again positive in March, with several markets breaking records: the US, Japan and the Netherlands…
Technology drives stock markets, also in February
Interest rate cuts postponed February showed that financial markets can also move forward without the support of the bond…
About January 2024: the market, oscillating between optimism and pessimism
Financial markets often exaggerate, making a “random walk” past the facts: if they ignore positive signals, pessimism prevails. When…
New Year's message: looking back from the threshold to a new year
What went well and what could have been better? Financial markets started the year on a positive note: bonds…
Will we also escape the recession soon?
We fought many plagues Of course, first we had to fight the pandemic. We did that spending a lot…
Interest rate happy?
Economic complaints are raining down from all sides, often with increased interest rates as the deeper background. And yet…
After us the deluge?
Inflation rates fell, while interest rates rose sharply in September. The explanation is possibly because statistics look back, but…
Looking beyond the business cycle: will Goldilocks come back?
A few years ago, the financial world was as beautiful as Goldilocks: self-evident growth and low inflation. But it…
What kind of climate was it last month?
This could be an account of a first boring summer-month. Do I hear ‘’summer”? When I step into the…
Is cash becoming King again?
It is starting to get a bit boring: interest rates, rising further as core inflation remains high, especially in…
What does a recession look like?
There are increasing signs of a recession in the goods sector: during the pandemic, parcels were flying around our…
The art of wise choices
Inflation can also be profitable The earnings season has started again. Caution about profits has been trumped up for…
The banks and the Pavlov reaction
Last month was quite turbulent in financial markets. There was fear of banks again, just like in 2008, but…
Interest rate realism
We are now two months into the new year: 1 month of interest rate optimism and 1 month of…
Hawks versus Doves
It is of all times, this battle in financial markets, but now it is even more topical: the fight…
My 10 New Year’s wishes
First of all, a Very Happy New Year! You and I, we all have New Year’s wishes. But what…
A tour of the pitches
What is the score? Who is scoring, who is trailing or downright failing? These are exciting times. I enjoy…
Bull or bear, who wins?
The battle between bull and bear is the familiar metaphor for stock market sentiment. For a long time, bears…
Free money does not exist
In these tense times, politicians throw colossal extra government spending or tax cuts into the fray to keep a…
Jackson Hole
“There is a hole in my bucket, dear Liza, dear Liza”, was a well-known song from my childhood. Politicians…
Change of sentiment
In our previous newsletter, I wrote about the widespread fear of a recession, which scared off many investors and…
Recession fears
For months, I have been tiring you with stagflation risks and now economies are stagnating not only in Europe…
‘Not’ normal
Have you ever experienced normal financial markets, and if so, what was it like? You might then say, “yep,…
Stagflation
Think of stagflation as a series of increasingly expensive bottlenecks. Think of Schiphol Amsterdam Airport where there are not…
Capitulation
We are in a phase of capitulation. That means you do something that you usually don’t want to do…
Game changer
In many ways, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a game changer. For starters, the postwar peace in Europe has…
The ebb and flow of money creation
It is no longer news that January brought a cold wind over markets. One that came from the Federal…
2021-22, a look back and ahead
How do we look back on the financial markets of the past year? Just like in 2020, bond markets…
Throwing in the towel
Finally, after nearly a year of excruciatingly soaring inflation rates, Fed Chairman Powell threw in the towel. The ‘temporary’…
An interest rate jab against the monetary infection?
Financial markets have long remained in denial, but now the diagnosis of inflation is becoming more widely shared. As…
Everything is temporary… even stagflation?
Everything is temporary, but sometimes temporality lasts a little longer. And if ‘everything’ means less pleasant things, such as…
More government, less market?
This catch phrase is central in a global debate, but even relevant in the formation of a new government…
The final rounds have begun!
We have now reached the final rounds of the interest rate competition. The heat is on, it gets exciting,…
Between theory and practice
One of the hardest things to do is to pretend weather conditions are excellent when you have just been…
If I could do magic…
It seems simple: the government orders money, the central bank supplies it, keeps the interest at around 0% and…
News flash
The world is getting back on track, especially in the US, where nearly 1 million jobs were added in…
To be inflated or not to be inflated, that’s the question
Inflation and interest rates If there is no inflation, interest rates are low and stocks are likely to be…
Game Stop or Game Over?
Bubbles Many of us will remember the tech-bubble in the late 90s when the talk of the day was…
Finally a year without cliff-hangers?
Hope and reality Naturally, I’d like to start this newsletter by wishing you a relaxed and healthy New Year.…
The Golden Age
Special developments and achievements experienced during a certain period of time are often named “golden moments”… This was certainly…
Election special
And the winner is… It is the fourth day after the election, and the outcome is almost certain: Joe…
Robin Hood: dream or reality?
The RobinHood App and financial markets in September Last month, I wrote to you about wishes for an angry…
The die is cast
Transfer and tax union Europe has really crossed the Rubicon. About 2000 years after Caesar did. And even now…
First the sweet, then the sour
Sweet It is the upside-down world of an economic crisis that does not want to become a financial crisis.…
Warming up for the new year
“Roaring 10s” The last month of the decade has passed. We can now start warming up for the new…
