Providence Capital

We are now two months into the new year: 1 month of interest rate optimism and 1 month of interest rate realism. Because inflation will not be chased away that easily, as the recent figures in France, Spain and Germany showed. These did not fall, they rose! It is sticky stuff, something like: if you … Read more

It is of all times, this battle in financial markets, but now it is even more topical: the fight between Hawks and Doves. The Hawks want a strict monetary policy, the doves allow things to be a bit milder. Last year, investors joined the Hawks: central bankers had remained Doves for too long. They had … Read more

First of all, a Very Happy New Year! You and I, we all have New Year’s wishes. But what are the chances of them coming true? Let me take you through my list of 10 New Year’s wishes. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine Generous supply of oil and gas No more coal firing and … Read more

What is the score? Who is scoring, who is trailing or downright failing? These are exciting times. I enjoy the reporting, though mostly from the side-lines. Who has the most energy? Surely, the most striking thing in Qatar was Germany’s smooth scoring. They went home quickly with a 15-year gas contract in the bag, starting … Read more

The battle between bull and bear is the familiar metaphor for stock market sentiment. For a long time, bears were on the winning side. Aided by sharply rising inflation and interest rates, stock markets were punished and, above all, downgraded. That was the first phase of the battle, with historically high P/E ratios, especially in … Read more

In these tense times, politicians throw colossal extra government spending or tax cuts into the fray to keep a more expensive life bearable for its citizens. In the United Kingdom, this went wrong in late September. Financial markets were so shocked by the announced, gross tax cut that interest rates went wild. As a result, … Read more

“There is a hole in my bucket, dear Liza, dear Liza”, was a well-known song from my childhood. Politicians are urging central bankers to really do something about the devaluation of money. They just had their most important meeting of the year, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It is also called the annual camping trip for … Read more

In our previous newsletter, I wrote about the widespread fear of a recession, which scared off many investors and caused stock prices to tumble. We were of the opinion that such negative stock market sentiment was a bit exaggerated and decided to buy more back shares again. In doing so, we neutralized our underweight position, … Read more

For months, I have been tiring you with stagflation risks and now economies are stagnating not only in Europe (The Netherlands, Germany, France), but also in the US. The official growth figure for Q1 was even negative. In addition, the decline in consumer confidence is striking almost everywhere. This is logical, given the continuing inflation, … Read more