Providencecapital

In these tense times, politicians throw colossal extra government spending or tax cuts into the fray to keep a more expensive life bearable for its citizens. In the United Kingdom, this went wrong in late September. Financial markets were so shocked by the announced, gross tax cut that interest rates went wild. As a result, … Read more

“There is a hole in my bucket, dear Liza, dear Liza”, was a well-known song from my childhood. Politicians are urging central bankers to really do something about the devaluation of money. They just had their most important meeting of the year, in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It is also called the annual camping trip for … Read more

In our previous newsletter, I wrote about the widespread fear of a recession, which scared off many investors and caused stock prices to tumble. We were of the opinion that such negative stock market sentiment was a bit exaggerated and decided to buy more back shares again. In doing so, we neutralized our underweight position, … Read more

For months, I have been tiring you with stagflation risks and now economies are stagnating not only in Europe (The Netherlands, Germany, France), but also in the US. The official growth figure for Q1 was even negative. In addition, the decline in consumer confidence is striking almost everywhere. This is logical, given the continuing inflation, … Read more

Have you ever experienced normal financial markets, and if so, what was it like? You might then say, “yep, I remember when interest rates were 4% and stock markets had a price-to-earnings ratio of 12-14. With moderate growth and an inflation rate of 2%…. That is to say without war or pandemics. That seems like … Read more

Think of stagflation as a series of increasingly expensive bottlenecks. Think of Schiphol Amsterdam Airport where there are not enough security guards and luggage porters so everyone gets stuck. Or the enormous lack of newspaper deliverers and cleaners, who can earn more elsewhere. Or to the increasingly expensive contractor, who can only start next year. … Read more

We are in a phase of capitulation. That means you do something that you usually don’t want to do and that often turns out wrong: you are or you feel compelled to do it. All kinds of parties are now capitulating, for different reasons. From central bankers, who now want to raise interest rates considerably, … Read more

In many ways, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a game changer. For starters, the postwar peace in Europe has come to an end. The world order suddenly looks different: Germany, which had been aloof from military conflicts since 1945, is now supplying weapons directly to Ukraine and is also going to invest 100 billion euros … Read more

It is no longer news that January brought a cold wind over markets. One that came from the Federal Reserve, which decided to let the wind blow from a different angle. No more endless money creation, the tap in the US is closing even faster than first announced. Moreover, the price of money could also … Read more

How do we look back on the financial markets of the past year? Just like in 2020, bond markets ended the year in negative territory. Incidentally, this was not accompanied by significant interest rate hikes. But with the high interest rate sensitivity of most bond markets, it takes very little to get this asset class … Read more