Golden Week

September was a volatile stock market month that started badly, but gradually became more upbeat. The bouncer was China, which launched a hefty stimulus package just before the end of the month, sending its stock markets up 20-25% in a matter of days. This was the biggest rise in 16 years, but still investors will … Read more

A short-lived rollercoaster?

August looked like a short-lived rollercoaster for financial markets, with equities first sharply down and then sharply up again. Meanwhile, we are back near the ‘all-time highs’ of mid-July, so has nothing changed at all? Appearances are deceptive, as interest rates have fallen in the meantime, as has the dollar, and there have been major … Read more

Summer sales?

Recession fear? While this should have been a July newsletter, that whole (for us) relatively friendly month of July has long since been overshadowed by the wild start of August. In short order, equities fell 10% and investors fled to government bonds, especially US ones. Was it the fear of a recession in America, as … Read more

The world is turning…. stock markets too?

June was an unusual month. Both in Europe and in the US, the political centre seemed to be losing its grip on things, although officially nothing is happening yet. The electorate shifted to the right, but the European centre parties shifted along in that direction in time, maintaining their dominant position and thus their top … Read more

Mood swings

Introduction There are several important elections this year. Both investors and politicians are trying to respond to changing trends and mood swings among citizens. For instance, geopolitics and trade relations are getting in the way of business investment and stock market prospects. Even in countries that do not hold elections. Volatile After April, May was … Read more

Less in the cloud, more in the cloud

Things have become more unsettled in financial markets. Stock markets showed their sunny side in the first months of the new year, but there have since been some thunderstorms. Markets are not so upbeat on inflation and interest rates. The fall in inflation stalled and so did interest rates, which rose and – in turn … Read more

Is good advice as expensive as the stock market?

Stock market sentiment remained again positive in March, with several markets breaking records: the US, Japan and the Netherlands are a few examples. With that enthusiasm, valuation levels also rise, although it is not a given that profits will increase correspondingly in a coming economic recovery. While the US economy is still barely faltering, economic … Read more

About January 2024: the market, oscillating between optimism and pessimism

Financial markets often exaggerate, making a “random walk” past the facts: if they ignore positive signals, pessimism prevails. When negative facts are set aside, optimism dominates. It is then up to us investors to identify which signals matter and which sentiment we should consider. When Fed chairman Powell signalled last October, that he was just … Read more